An assessment of the Primakov doctrine: What is it and why it has been the philosophy behind Putin's foreign policy?
What is the international order that Putin and Russia are advocating for? And why?
THE PRIMAKOV DOCTRINE: PUTIN’S GLOBAL VISION
On June 29, 2015, a man was buried with military honors at the Novodevichy Cemetary in Moscow.
That man, Yevgeny Primakov, is widely acknowledged as “Russia’s Kissinger”, considered to be the architect behind Russia’s grand strategy, the Primakov doctrine. Primakov’s passway received condolences from the Russian President, Vladimir Putin, who dubbed Primakov as a person with a “colossal contribution to the formation of modern Russia” (Nechepurenko, 2015). Formulating in the late 1990s, the Primakov doctrine stated that it is within Russia’s national security interests to maintain a superpower status, refusing the United States a “unipolar international order”. The Primakov theory consists of five primary principles (Rumer, 2019):
Russia must maintain its position as a formidable country that possesses an independent foreign policy.
Russia should strive to construct a global system characterized by several centers of power
Russia should actively pursue the integration of Eurasian nations and strive for supremacy in territories that were formerly under Soviet administration.
Russia must proactively endeavor to halt the expansion of NATO.
Russia must pursue strategic collaboration with China.
The Primakov doctrine has been the backbone of Vladimir Putin’s foreign policy for the last 20 years. The doctrine has had a direct contribution to Putin’s vision of a multipolar world, a world where power is distributed between different players. According to classical realists such as Hans Morgenthau (Morgenthau, 1948) or E.H. Carr (Carr, 1939), in this multipolar world order, peace is maintained as the different factions in this order can increase power by forming alliances or low-level conflicts, ensuring that high-level, direct wars are not needed. Compared to a unipolar order, where one country imposes its will on others, the probability of low-level conflicts is much higher, as the leading power can assert its military or economic dominance through interventions in whichever part of the world as it sees fit. This argument has been proven, as classical realists claim, through the United States’ increased number of wars over the last 30 years, since the end of the Cold War, with the Gulf War, U.S intervention in Yugoslavia, the Iraqi War, the War on Terror,... Additionally, compared to a bipolar order, the probability of proxy wars is much higher as the two main powers look to gain influence through proxy conflicts such as the Korean War or the Vietnam War during the Cold War period.
Vladimir Putin seems to share the same argument as classical realists, claiming that the United States’ dominance on the world stage poses a security threat not to Russia but to global peace as he did in the famous 2007 Munich Speech (Kremlin, 2007).
Putin advocates for a multipolar world, a world where Russia is a global superpower, capable of wielding its own military and economic influence over the world as it sees fit, and the head of the Russosphere, a Eurasian sphere consisting of Russia and the Soviet Union’s former territories or countries that were within the Soviets’ sphere of influence. Putin sees that it is Russia’s mandate and undeniable right to be the leader of such a sphere, and any attempt by the United States to thwart Russia of that leadership shall be considered an act of aggression and provocation.
Regarding other factions, for example, India or China, Putin’s multipolarism ensures that these countries should have their own sphere, India with a South Asian sphere, or China with the BRI’s countries, and are independent from the influence of the United States. In Putin’s grand picture, the Eastern world, with Russia, India, and China at the core, would be the perfect counterbalance to the Western world, headed by the United States. Other worth mentioning factions are the Arab countries, such as Saudi Arabia, with its growing economic strength given by a massive oil reserve, or Latin America, such as Brazil, with its growing status as one of the world's fastest developing countries and a huge population, or Iran, a traditionally middle east powerhouse,... are also deserving their position in the 21st-century political chessboard. The United States and the Western world, in this multipolar order, despite still being a major faction (probably the most significant faction) will no longer hold absolute power and the ability to conduct military intervention or economic intervention as it has done since the end of the Cold War.
THE MOTIVATIONS BEHIND PUTIN’S ADVOCACY FOR MULTIPOLARISM
An important aspect to consider is what are the motivations behind Putin’s idea of a multipolar world. To adequately answer this question, it is important to approach it from different angles, firstly on a personal level, assessing Putin’s psychological motivation.
Vladimir Putin is a man obsessed with history. According to a Time article in February 2022, Putin has asked historians on multiple occasions how he would be remembered in history. Vladimir Putin, as the leader of one of the strongest countries in the world for well over two decades, is determined to carve up his place in history, making sure that his name will be in the ranks of Alexander the Great, Napoleon Bonaparte, or Hitler, men who forever altered the course of mankind (Vu, 2023). What better way to achieve that status than to successfully change the global order, one that has been dominated by America for well over 30 years? Thus, it is within Putin’s desire to change the current global status quo to ensure Russia’s position as a major power on the world stage and guarantee his position in the history books as one of Russia’s and the world’s most influential statesmen. A multipolar order, where Russia’s status increases and America’s status declines, would provide him with that achievement.
Additionally, on a grander level, it is important to assess Russia’s internal and external environment. At the beginning of Putin’s reign in 2000, Russia has recently experienced a decade of humiliation. From its position as one of the two most powerful nations in the world, the Fall of the Soviet Union meant the succumb of Russia to a more superior American system. Furthermore, Russia’s various internal problems such as its failing economy, declining social security, increasing social upheavals, the rise of oligarchs and gangs, Chechnya’s separation, and following conflicts,... showcased a weakened Russia, one incapable of asserting its dominance across any domain, from politics to military, to the economy. The cherry on the top, Boris Yeltsin’s incompetency, and embarrassing public actions, greatly contributed to Russia’s diminishing global perception. All of these factors contribute to Russia’s idea of a multipolar world, as Russia cannot compete with the United States to become the leading power in a unipolar world, nor it can reclaim its position as one of the two major powers in a bipolar order similar to what existed during the Cold War. Hence, a multipolar order is Russia’s only choice for retaining global status, following a simple logic, if Russia cannot rule the world, it is better to let others rule it than to let the United States rule it alone.
It is also important to take into account other countries’ motivations behind their support for Putin’s multipolar idea. For example, China over the last 20 years has been a major ally and supporter of Vladimir Putin’s advocacy for a multipolar world. As China grew stronger economically, politically, and militarily, Beijing aspired to play a greater role on the world stage, being perceived as one of the major players in the global political ring. However, with the United States’ dominance in the first decades of the 21st century, Beijing soon realized that it would require more support and actions from other players to achieve its goal. Thus, Putin’s idea of a multipolar world, where different players hold sway over the global political discourse, is within China’s strategic interests. Vladimir Putin, albeit not the only advocate of multipolarism, is certainly the most vocal one, keeping the light on Russia when mentioning the discussion. China’s support of Russia’s multipolar idea not only plays into its desire for global power but also ensures Beijing the ability to stay low on the world stage, building up its political, economic, and military prowess through the BRI or military expansion without facing Western opposition. For example, China has faced relatively little opposition to its military expansion since the start of the war in Ukraine.
Sources:
Nechepurenko, Ivan (28 June 2015). “'Russian Kissinger' Yevgeny Primakov Dies at 85”. The Moscow Times.
Rumer, Eugene (June 2019). “The Primakov (Not Gerasimov) Doctrine in Action”. Washington, D.C. pp. 1–23. Rumer.
Morgenthau, Hans (1948). "Politics Among Nations: The Struggle for Power and Peace".
Carr, E.H. (1939). "The Twenty Years' Crisis: How We Heard the War News".
Russia, President of (2007). “Speech and the Following Discussion at the Munich Conference on Security Policy”.
Vu, Hoang (2023). “How Putin can make his biggest remark in history: democratize Russia”